He voted for HB 2218 which would allow concealed carry permit holders into restaurants that serve liquor.For those of you that remember, this was the bill that Graf was famously ridiculed for on an episode of the Daily Show. You can check it out here. A part that was my particular favorite was when Graf compared the United States Constitution to the rules of golf. I'm not sure how publicizing his vote on this bill helps him, the bill was roundly criticized even by Republicans. The folks that like it are allready with him. This must be why he hasn't broken 40% yet.|W|P|116230869902361538|W|P|And This Will Win Him Votes Because...?|W|P|prezelski@aol.com
Political prognosticator Charlie Cook has moved the race between J. D. Hayworth and Harry Mitchell from "Leans Republican" to "Toss Up."
He also stated:
THERE IS NO EBB IN THE WAVE: With the election just eight days away, there are no signs that this wave is abating. Barring a dramatic event, we are looking at the prospect of GOP losses in the House of at least 20 to 35 seats, possibly more, and at least four in the Senate, with five or six most likely.|W|P|116230432798980706|W|P|CD 5 - Charlie Cook Revises Rating|W|P|prezelski@aol.com
Some internal polling after the primary showed Democrat Charlene Pesquiera dead even with Republican Al Melvin. The RINO hunters on the Republican side may have overplayed their hand here. Even though they can't stand the "liberalism" (their word) of Toni Hellon and Pete Hershberger, it may, in fact, be reflective of the sort of Republicans that live in the district.
The State Democratic Party is looking at the place for a possible pickup. The party has sent in Katie Bolger, a fantastic organizer, to take care of things in the district. Folks that have observed the volunteer operation have been very impressed by the amount of people they have been able to put on the streets.
(Quick, name the last Democrats to represent the area we now call District 26. Hint, it wasn't called District 26 back then.)
The organization is also in place to help house candidate Lena Saradnik. The way we elect house members can invite all sorts of mischief, and Saradnik could slip in if enough Democratic voters chose not to use their second votes, and moderate Hershberger voters give her their second vote. Given how Melvin and Dave Jorgenson feel about moderate Republicans, I don't know why they should expect their votes anyway.
NB - Back in the old District 12, Reid Ewing was a State Representative in the 1980's. In the 1970's, Sue Dye was a State Senator from the area. Also serving as a State Representative from the district for a single term was, of all people, John Kromko.|W|P|116226141666014890|W|P|District 26 Update|W|P|prezelski@aol.com
One of my operatives tells me that a guy named Bill Clinton is coming to Tucson on Thursday to campaign for Democratic nominees.
I'm not sure who this guy is, but I hear he resembles blogger George Tuttle.|W|P|116225382389758465|W|P|Arkansan Travels Here|W|P|prezelski@aol.com
Bill Richardson will be in Tucson next Thursday to campaign for Gabrielle Giffords. He will be making his appearance at 3:30, stay tuned to this station for details.|W|P|116201402362680034|W|P|He May Have to Admit That Our Tamales Are Better|W|P|prezelski@aol.com
An update on the Sunnyside School Board shenanigans:
Word has come down through the transom that there are doubts about the Linda Lopez resignation letter. People have seen a draft, but there are questions about whether it has actually been delivered to the Sunnyside School Board. Folks are wondering if she just did this to mess with plans to recall her from the board and are speculating that she in fact wants to stick around. I'm still wondering why she would knock off the sitting president of the board, install herself, then resign.
All of this, but she still wants the added headache of being minority leader of the State House?|W|P|116200211408792017|W|P|Did She, Or Didn't She?|W|P|prezelski@aol.comDeport GrijalvaAh, classy guys. If you don't get the joke, you see Raúl Grijalva is Hispanic, so we can send him back to Mexico, right? There are also bumper stickers being circulated around town that say "Deport Grijalva" as well. Before anyone claims that this is about policy and not about race, why haven't there been any "Deport Pederson," "Deport Giffords," "Deport Napolitano," or "Deport Flake" for that matter? Well, Napolitano could sound Hispanic, but, she's of Italian descent. God knows, the Republicans wouldn't mock people of Italian descent, would they? Just so you know, Grijalva was born here, his family having moved from Canoa (near where Randy Graf's favorite Green Valley golf courses are now). His father had come to Arizona as part of the bracero program, the World War II program to bring Mexican farmworkers here to fill the gaps for Americans that were fighting overseas. Funny, no one was asking for them to be deported then. This, along with the earlier "American Name" incident, tells me that many of the folks that come out for Drake don't seem to understand that merely having a Spanish surname doesn't make you less American. I find this particularly insulting, given that my Hispanic ancestors were here one hundred years before any significant Anglo population was here. I guess they all needed to be deported.|W|P|116200125573551114|W|P|More Assinine Humor From Our Republican Friends|W|P|prezelski@aol.com
Sex-columnist and gay activist Dan Savage has suggested an ad for Harold Ford Jr. Check it out, it does contain some profanity though. Not the ad, but Savage's accompanying comments.
I met Ford at an airport last year when I was coming back from MLS Cup. He was with Barack Obama. The funny thing is, Obama was the big celebrity, and Ford was just the guy with him. You could tell that Ford was a bit irritated that I was more enthralled with meeting Obama.
Obama, being the only African American Senator, is seen as an important leader and even a possible presidential candidate.
But, if Ford wins this, geez. If y'all remember, Obama's first opponent, Jack Ryan, had both an unfortunate last name (the same as the embattled governor) and was hounded out of the race for, it seems, having consentual sex with his wife (maybe Savage has a point). He was replaced by Alan Keyes, who wasn't even from Illinois and came off as a wack job. Illinois had also recently elected another African American Senator.
Ford will be winning in a Southern state that didn't even elect an African American Senator during Reconstruction. He will be winning in a tough campaign that many people didn't give him too much of a chance in a couple of months ago. Ford's views on many issues probably keeps him from being too exciting to liberal activists, but he would be given his props as a giant-killer and pioneer.|W|P|116195823370056956|W|P|Dan Savage's Advice for Harold Ford Jr.|W|P|prezelski@aol.comHe told the National Taxpayers Union in their candidate survey that he supported Social Security privatization. This is from his answer in their survey:As for federal health-care programs like Medicare, Graf said that after years of government involvement, the time could be right for citizens to “take control” in an effort to combat rising costs. “Perhaps government needs to get out of it,” he said.
Asked if he would support the elimination of Medicare, Graf did not reject the idea but said, “It’s not going to be done over-night.” And asked about what should happen in case of poor families who can't afford costly medical care, Graf said “hard decisions” will have to be made.
I recognize that Social Security will default on its obligations to future retirees unless fundamental reforms are made. Therefore, I will work and vote for a system of Social Security Choice that will allow younger workers to have the choice of investing much of their Social Security taxes in regulated individual retirement accounts. Current retirees and those nearing retirement would not have any change in their Social Security benefits. Social Security Choice will give younger workers the option of ownership of personal Social Security accounts, with higher rates of return and better benefits than are possible under the current system.Graf voiced his opposition to federal funding of stem-cell research as recently as August in an article about the issue in the Tucson Weekly.
"It's not eliminating embryonic stem-cell research," Graf says. "It's just making sure that taxpayer dollars are not going into it."Let me get this right: when Graf himself declares these positions, it makes him a man of principles. When Giffords points out that he has those positions, it is a distortion. Let me take some time to wrap my head around that and I'll get back to you.|W|P|116192537962425090|W|P|CD 8 Debate Report: Principles Above Politics Except When Those Principles Don't Poll Well|W|P|prezelski@aol.com
District 25 is the most perfect example of why our current 30-district scheme in the legislature is inadequate. It looked as though the Independent Redistricting Commission piled every Southern Arizona community they couldn't figure out what to do with into one district. It includes most of Cochise County as well as Nogales in Santa Cruz County, then moves up to take in the Tohono O'odham Nation as well as exurban Phoenix. Heck, any district that includes exurban Phoenix and exurban Tucson is probably not well drawn.
The district, although marginally Democratic, has a split delegation, with Republican Jennifer Burns representing it along side Sen. Marsha Arzberger and Rep. Manny Alvarez. When this race started, Pat Fleming and Richard Boyer, both from Sierra Vista, emerged as candidates. Boyer has since decided to run for Corporation Commission.
I think when this thing started, people didn't give Fleming much of a chance. I knew better, though. When I was with Wesley Clark's campaign, Fleming was our top volunteer in Cochise County and managed to put together a great operation out there. We had a fantastic rally with Clark in Sierra Vista, and in the end we came within 331 votes of winning, which given how John Kerry pounded us in the rest of the state was pretty good.
Fleming has put on a great campaign, and now internal polls are showing that she can win this thing and the district will once again have an all Democratic delegation. This also makes the math for Republican hopes for a veto-proof legislature a bit harder.
Another good sign for Fleming: Arizona List, a group that supports Democratic women running for office, refused to endorse Fleming for most of the race. Earlier this week, however, they sent an e-mail to their members asking that they help Fleming.
This leaves Burns out in the cold. Some polls are showing that she could very easily come in fourth behind former Rep. Gail Griffin. Burns has voiced her frustration that the Democrats are running a candidate against her at all, given that she has been a moderate. As far as Republicans go, Burns has been one of the good ones, but when her party is on the hunt for a 2/3 majority, which would render her moderation useless, it is silly to think that we would leave any Republican untargeted in a Democratic district.
It seems that Burns's issue is really with people in her own party, who recruited a candidate to knock her out in the primary and who seem to be more eager to help Griffin. I'm not sure why it is the Democratic Party's job to rescue her.
NB - How can I talk about District 25 without recognizing the anniversary of the OK Corral gunfight, where Republican Wyatt Earp used a local gun-control statute as a pretext to gun down several Democrats.|W|P|116192148065010922|W|P|District 25 Update|W|P|prezelski@aol.com
New numbers from a KVOA/Arizona Daily Star Zimmerman poll that will be released tonight:
Gabrielle Giffords (D-Tucson) - 48.2% Randy Graf (R-Green Valley) - 38.2% Undecided - 10.5% Jay Quick (I-Tucson) - 1.6% Dave Nolan (L-Carpetbagger) - 1.5%
Graf has gained slightly since the last Zimmerman poll, but given the hammering that he has been delivering Giffords in radio and television ads, you'd think that she'd have some significant slippage. 39.4% of the district's voters are registered Republicans. It is hard to judge this without looking at the crosstabs, but it seems like Graf's support among independents and pinto Democrats is negligible at best since his polling number only barely reaches this. Giffords, on the other hand, is doing far better than the Democratic registration of 34.0%. I suppose I'll read on the Republican blogs that:
I cannot believe the Citizen has chosen Ted Prezelski over Bruce Murchison for state legislator. Hasn't Murchison shown good potential with his three education proposals? His district and education, as a whole, are his passions. What is Tucson becoming when we fail to elect the best and the brightest? Jade StokesThe funny thing is, the Citizen didn't endorse me in either one of my runs for public office, so I don't know what he's talking about.|W|P|116188272706842154|W|P|Note: He Wears Chuck Taylors, I Wear Sambas|W|P|prezelski@aol.com
Pauley Perrette, who plays the unlikely criminalist Abby Scioto on the CBS drama NCIS: Navy Criminal Investigative Service, seemed to endorse Barack Obama on her blog last Friday:
I just absolutely could not like this guy any more than I do. Jeez... Finally, a man I trust and respect. Love, love, love.|W|P|116178357092502291|W|P|"That Cute Goth Chick From NCIS" Endorses Obama|W|P|prezelski@aol.com
Bruce Merrill's KAET poll has been released, and it is up here.
As I reported earlier, Jim Pederson is within the margin of error, and Jon Kyl still hasn't broken 50%.|W|P|116174459601786161|W|P|Pederson Within Six: Ladies and Gentlemen, We Have a Horse Race|W|P|prezelski@aol.com
Okay, the story I put up about Rick Renzi the other day that a bunch of you said I was wrong about? Well...I was wrong about one thing, it is not an indictment, but an "inquiry."
Apparently, the AP has the story now. I couldn't find where it has been posted, but Renzi has apparently hired former Arizona Attorney General Grant Woods as his defense attorney. And, of course, Renzi is carefully following his attorney's instructions and not saying anything.|W|P|116174377312753898|W|P|Renzi Hires Defense Attorney|W|P|prezelski@aol.com
Republicans all over the country are saying the phrase "Dennis who?" when it comes to Speaker Dennis Hastert. Candidates like Ron Lewis in Kentucky and Shelley Sekula Gibbs in Texas have said "no thanks" to a Hastert appearance in their, yes, Republican districts. Even Don Sherwood, who has been hounded by allegations that he beat his mistress, cancelled an appearance because he thinks that Hastert would give him a bad name.
Well, apparently there is one candidate who thinks that Hastert is a stand-up guy. There is no "cut and run" from the speaker by our own Randy Graf.
Hastert will be coming to town for a fundraiser for Graf. According to an invitation that got sent out, you can pay $250 for lunch or $500 for a picture with the speaker. Given that he won't be Speaker for very much longer, how much will that picture actually be worth?
One can also pay $2100 to attend a "roundtable" with the Speaker. Gosh, a roundtable. A lot of dialogue will go on there, I bet.
I'm saving the best part for last. The event happens next Tuesday. Next Tuesday is...Halloween. I leave the jokes there for y'all.
I was thinking that someone should send a bunch of teenagers wearing blazers to the event. But naw, frontrunners don't need to do stunts like that.
This gives Graf and Hastert a chance to compare notes on how to deal with ephebophiles in their organizations.
NB - I used the title to finally make the H. P. Lovecraft reference that I have been waiting so long to make.|W|P|116169746702856547|W|P|Hastert the Unspeakerable Coming to Tucson|W|P|prezelski@aol.comIn fact, our staff has learned that one of the nation's leading non-partisan political experts, Larry J. Sabato, of the University of Virginia, is now predicting Randy will win, keeping CD8 in the Republican column. As recently as late September, Sabato had called the contest between Randy and Gabrielle Giffords "a toss-up."Well, that would certainly be a problem for Giffords, 'cept it ain't totally true. They are correct in as much as Sabato had, at one point, called the race a "toss up." Only a complete moron would have thought otherwise. As of Friday, Sabato moved the race over to "Leans Democrat." So, the only movement in the race, according to Sabato, has been away from Graf. As for the claim that Sabato is about to move the race back into the "toss up" category, exactly what is it that is supposed to have gone on since Friday that would make Sabato do that so soon after moving it the other way? Hey, Graf may be pulling ahead for all I know. After all, there is that secret KUAT poll, right? But guys, couldn't you phony up a source that, I dunno, isn't so easy for wags like me to debunk?|W|P|116166622147762577|W|P|I Think It Is Called Truthiness|W|P|prezelski@aol.com
This has already made an appearance on a couple of other blogs. I actually had this yesterday but, silly me, I wanted to confirm it first. This means I didn't get to break the story.
Why must I insist on being ethical?
Here is the story that is going around. The US Attorney's office has information that Rick Renzi told someone that he would only introduce legislation for a land swap if that legislation included land that belonged to a business partner of his. The New Times ran a detailed piece on the land deal but was unaware that the US Attorney's office was actually ready to indict Renzi for soliciting a bribe.
The allegation that is being discussed in political and press circles up in Phoenix is that Paul Charlton, a Bush appointee, is sitting on the indictment until after the election. It would be hard to keep a lid on this thing now with this much buzz about it.
If this is true, it looks like one carpetbagger's political career is over.|W|P|116157959928197855|W|P|US Attorney Office Playing Politics With an Indictment?|W|P|prezelski@aol.com
Last week, Linda Lopez led a group of three members in a sort of coup d'etat on the Sunnyside School District board and removed District superintendent Raúl Bejarano and board president Eva Carrillo-Dong.
The board had to relent and reinstate Bejarano after public objection. The most silly part of the Bejarano move was that his contract was up in a few months anyhow.
Lopez is now the president of the board. So, one might ask, can she be president of the school board and still make her run at being house Democratic leader? (against, by the way, the similarly-but-Portugese-named Phil Lopes)
Some might be suprised to learn that there is nothing illegal about serving in two elected offices, as long as one of them doesn't actually pay. Many members of the legislature serve on school boards, and when he was Secretary of State, Dick Mahoney served on the Central Arizona Water Conservation District board (the less said about him the better).
What many of us were wondering is whether someone could be a school board president and have a serious leadership role at the legislature and do both jobs well. Geography works against Lopez somewhat, since the two bodies meet a good 120 miles away from each other. Also, this fight could have resulted in a distraction from legislative duties, there were people talking about recalling her and her main ally on the board Luís Araiza over the handling of Bejarano.
She seems to have solved this little problem, since she submitted a letter in the last day or so resigning her School board office effective December 31. Presumably, so she can pursue her goal of being House Democratic Leader.|W|P|116153471056265090|W|P|What Is Linda Lopez Up To?|W|P|prezelski@aol.comIf this trend holds up in multiple polls, this might be a tightening of the race, though representing mostly a drop-off from Gabby [Giffords] to undecideds, rather than any meaningful gain for [Randy] Graf. I've heard rumors of a as-yet-unreleased poll from UofA's KUAT showing the gap between Graf and Giffords as narrow as 6%, which would confirm a trend, but I haven't got solid sourcing on that as yet and am looking into it.At least when that was put up, it was put up as a rumor. But, this morning, Arizona 8th not only put up the rumor as Gospel, but further asserted that KUAT is also supressing the results of a second poll and fired a producer for leaking the results. So, I called the Arch-Duke of KUAT's award winning news operation, Bill Buckmaster. Buckmaster told me that there is no poll and no producer has been fired. KUAT has not hired a pollster and does not have an in-house polling operation. From the beginning, the CD 8 race has been rife with rumors like this one based on a rather faulty premise: that a media organization would spend 'round about $10,000 on a poll, then not use it. It is especially silly here, since the claim is that a local public television station would waste money on two polls that they don't make public. Heck, they are so tight that I couldn't even keep my snazzy KUAT coffee mug after my appearance on their flagship news program. I found it funny that the rumor was that Graf was only six points behind. If you remember, local Republican bloggers were gushing about another "secret" media poll a while back that showed that Ron Drake was six points behind Raúl Grijalva. What is so magical about six? It was claimed that that poll had been commissioned by the Tucson Citizen, who were of course, supressing it. Actually, it really depended on who you talked to. I think it was claimed that every media outlet in Southern Arizona except for maybe 110° and Soda Pop had commissioned the poll and burried it. As it turns out, the poll was an internal campaign poll conducted by a firm that has in the past done work for the Citizen, but not commissioned by them. The "down by 6%" was only after recipients heard a list of negatives about Grijalva, and a series of positive statements about Drake. So, in other words, the poll said that if everyone hears Drake's message, he still loses by six points. Not exactly something to brag about. Of course, these little fables are being told to give these candidates the illusion of momentum. Well, that's all they've got right now, I guess.|W|P|116130561958323727|W|P|Another Moronic CD8 Rumor Disembowled: A Public Service I Provide Free of Charge|W|P|prezelski@aol.com
Mayor Bob Walkup filed papers last week to run for a third term. It suprised me, but that may be because I have been paying attention to the other races and my Revs are in the MLS playoffs.
It suprised me because Walkup is now part of a minority on the council: he's the only Republican and his only regular ally is independent Carol West. I don't know why he would want to run again unless he forsees a Republican sweep in next year's election, or a series of pro-buisiness Democrat wins in the primaries.
Had Walkup decided not to run, the Republicans would have been hard pressed to find a candidate with his vote getting ability in this mostly Democratic city. The Democratic names that have been mentioned as candidates are Councilmembers José Ibarra and Steve Leal, along with former Vice-Mayor Brent Davis.
Davis, who represented the Northeast Side Ward 2 until 1987, has remained active in civic affairs. It seems, however, that his candidacy was premised on Walkup not running.
No fair doing this while I wasn't looking, though.|W|P|116128832570768311|W|P|Walkup to Run for a Third Term|W|P|prezelski@aol.comVote for the American nameSo, what exactly are y'all saying there? Funny thing, an early appearance of the name "Grijalva" in our little part of the Americas was way back in 1775, when a guy named Juan Pablo de Grijalva was part of the Juan Bautista de Anza expedition that travelled from Mexico, helped settle Tubac and Tucson and eventually made it all the way up to San Francisco. I can't imagine there were too many "Drakes" out here back then, 'cept maybe for the ones that were waddling on the banks of the then-flowing Santa Cruz river. (Far as I know, Raúl Grijalva wasn't related to this guy, but I had one and possibly two Spanish surnamed ancestors that made the trip.) I certainly hope that these people were not trying to suggest that people with Spanish surnames are not qualified to be "American." If they do, I suggest a quick perusal of this website. Where does this stop, exactly? If we don't allow Spanish names, what about those of other romance languages, say, Italian or French? Why stop there? Have you looked at my crazy Polish last name lately (A worse tongue twister for most than "Grijalva")? I suppose we should only elect folks of good Anglo-Saxon stock. NB - I saw one Drake supporter leaving the debate with a rosary in his hand. I guess he anticipated that Drake's performance was going to be so bad that he needed intercession from the BVM (it didn't work). This particular supporter was obviously Catholic, which leads me to believe that he probably is not one with an English last name. Did he see the irony in this?|W|P|116128271449009192|W|P|And They Wonder Why Hispanics Aren't Falling Over Themselves to Vote for Them|W|P|prezelski@aol.com
Now Kathy Dong (who is not an elected board member) is wrecking havoc on the board as revenge for Mama's dismissal as President. BTW, is 'Dong' a North Korean name? (North Korea was testing Taepo-Dong missiles recently) This is not NORTH KOREA. We live in a democracy. If you don't agree with how an elected official is acting...you vote he or she out of office! That is exactly what Dong's fellow board members did and you should not act in retaliation against democracy.Nice. The e-mail also accuses Eva Dong of being connected with people who slaughter goats. I don't get it either. I suppose if this was the fifteenth or twentieth comment, I could see that a discussion could degenerate into this sort of ugliness. But, this was the very first comment. I've seen this sort of thing with many of the on-line comments on Star stories. What is it about the comment section that seems to bring out the racists?|W|P|116128107858081642|W|P|The Star's Comment Section Brings Out the Best in Everyone, Doesn't it?|W|P|prezelski@aol.com
The Tucson Citizen endorsed Raúl Grijalva today. The editors sum it up nicely in their opening sentence:
Pick almost any major national issue - illegal immigration, the war in Iraq, the No Child Left Behind Act - and Raúl Grijalva is ready to challenge the status quo.Of course, the online version of the editorial is immediately followed by the de riguer racist response.|W|P|116127946141118936|W|P|I Don't Know, It May Have Helped Drake a Wee Bit if He Showed Up to the Editorial Board|W|P|prezelski@aol.com
Cobb is from Avondale. Grijalva is an incumbent.Way to be classy there, fella.|W|P|116123618841496117|W|P|Mallard to Students: Stop Stealing Pell Grant Money!|W|P|prezelski@aol.com
Check out this article, in which Rick Santorum compares our soldiers to...um...hobbits.
So then, who's Gollum?|W|P|116119324329405078|W|P|I Guess I Should Be Thankful That He Reads|W|P|prezelski@aol.com
Last week, I wrote about Bill Phillips's mailer. It's been sitting on my desk ever since, and one sentence has been striking me:
Republicans comprise a substantial minority in our District, yet we have not had representation for some time.Hmm. You know, years ago, I met with some Green Party leaders. They wanted to see if there was some way to push for alternative election systems, particularly proportional representation. They seem to have since abandoned the effort for proportional representation, but local Green Party matron Claudia Ellquist has been putting her efforts to instant run-off voting. It's sounding to me like Phillips is endorsing proportional representation (unless he is only angry about Republicans being "unrepresented" in Democratic districts). Maybe he can get together with Ellquist and revive her effort for European style democracy in Arizona. Let's do it!|W|P|116118126182726630|W|P|Bill Phillips (Hearts) Lani Guinier?|W|P|prezelski@aol.com
In tonight's debate, Joe Burchell asked Randy Graf if he would follow the example of J. D. Hayworth and distance himself from Russell Pearce. For those of you who have been too busy reading my anti-DC United rants or comments on local bands on my other blog, Pearce has been hammered as of late for his use of the term "wetback" and for sending out an e-mail quoting a neo-Nazi article.
Graf's reply:
Russell Pearce is a good American patriot. We are of a like mind. I am proud of his endorsement.I don't only have a problem with this because he is standing by Pearce despite what we are all finding out about him, but also because Graf is trying to have it both ways. When the heat was on Pearce most heavily last week, Pearce's name disappeared from his endorsement list. It has since re-appeared. He also quietly shelved his ad featuring Pearce and Karen Johnson. The link to the commercial disappeared. (It can still be found here.) So, last week he distanced himself from Pearce hoping no one would notice, now they are best pals again. Is that principle or politics? I can't tell.|W|P|116114758834111054|W|P|Randy (Hearts) Rusty|W|P|prezelski@aol.com
Radar is featuring a list of the ten dumbest congressmen. Guess who is listed as number four?
I'll give you a hint: his intitals are "J" and "D."|W|P|116111000140867340|W|P|There's a Top 10 List That One Republican Won't be Bragging About|W|P|prezelski@aol.com
I told him that I had read on some conservative blogs about the DCCC pulling out of Mitchell's race. He said that no such thing has happened, that DCCC chair Rahm Emanuel visited the district just this week.
Apparently, this rumor started when the existing ad buy had to be rescheduled to start earlier. This meant that some later ads were cancelled. The D-Trip is still planning on unloading $1.7 million on this race, and their polling still shows Mitchell even or sligtly ahead of J. D. Hayworth.
The conservative bloggers can keep wishing though.|W|P|116088029074379052|W|P|Um, Not Quite|W|P|prezelski@aol.com
In an odd turn given everything else that is going on, former Massachusetts Rep. Gerry Studds has died from a blood clot in his lung.
Studds is probably most famous for being the first openly gay congressman.
Studds's name has recently been in the news because of the ongoing Mark Foley scandal. Unfortunately, this has obscured his tremendous work on behalf of protecting Northeastern fisheries as well as broader environmental issues.|W|P|116087780179740699|W|P|Gerry Studds|W|P|prezelski@aol.com
The sound you hear is prominent Republicans running from their one time best pal, Russell Pearce.
Well, another man running from Pearce is our own Randy Graf. Graf actually had an ad in the can featuring an endorsement from Pearce. Well, any link to the ad has disappeared from the site, but it can still be found here. Also, you can find the ad on YouTube here. Pearce's name has been removed from Graf's supporter list as well.
Pearce and Graf have been working hand in glove on immigration issues for years. Now he's quietly disassociating himself from him in the hopes that no one notices.
As I've said before, Pearce has been known to make inappropriate statements for some time now. Why Graf would want to feature this man's endorsement, even before the latest outrage, is beyond me.
NB - Word is that some legislative leaders are pushing for Speaker Jim Weiers to remove Pearce from his chairmanship. More on this when I hear something interesting.|W|P|116079134393267596|W|P|Randy Graf and Russell Pearce|W|P|prezelski@aol.com
When I was putting together my last post featuring my response to a complaint posted on Espresso Pundit, I remembered that Al Melvin puts "Captain" on his signs. His website, which prominently features a picture of him in uniform, has a list of veterans who have endorsed him with, you guessed it, rank and branch of service.
I was getting ready to write a post saying "Hey, why aren't you guys raising a stink about that!" when one particular name caught my eye:
Former Randy Graf campaign manager Steve Aiken.
For those of you who need to be reminded, Aiken had to be removed as campaign manager a few months back when it turned out that he had previously been convicted of sexual impropriety with a teenage girl when he lived in Pennsylvania. This was enough for Graf to cut the ties, but apparently, this isn't a problem for Capt. Melvin.
With everything that is going on, I think we ought to go back to Mr. Aiken and ask him about this incident again. He still has time to blame Jack Daniels and George Soros.|W|P|116078682299575448|W|P|Maybe After the Events of the Last Couple of Weeks, You May Want to Take That Down|W|P|prezelski@aol.comPederson has the nerve to compare an expert on terrorism and national security to Osama bin Laden and then he runs off to raise money for Hamas on the weekend we commemorate the worst terrorist attack in our country's history.Okay, when the heck did Jim Pederson "raise money for Hamas"? How is this not libelous? I know some ridiculous things get put in the comments on here, but they can be quickly responded to. Patterson got this e-mail, and chose to post it with little or no opportunity for someone to refute it. It may be silly and irrelevant to knock Pederson for his son or his wealth, but at least they have some basis, however tenuous, in fact. In essence, this e-mail accuses Pederson of treason. Is this the sort of thing we'll be treated to over the next couple of weeks? Nice. A less inflamatory e-mail went up over the last day or so, but once again, with an allegation that is none the less, shall we say, poorly documented:
Have you seen the latest Jim Pederson ad with what appears to be active duty military personnel criticizing John Kyle [sic] and President Bush’s handling of the war? It is not legal for active duty military personnel to be overtly involved in political campaigns, particularly when it involves criticizing their Commander-in-Chief . . . Which begs the question, are they active duty military personnel? Probably not, but this new misleading ad of the week has set a new standard. It leads the viewer to think that these men are active duty because they are shown in uniform with their name and rank.Here is the ad in question. Two contradictory allegations are made here: that military personel are campaigning in uniform, or that Pederson is being deceptive by showing them at all. Notice that one sailor, Andrew Vera, is featured wearing dog tags but not a uniform, and soldier Tomás Chavez is wearing something similar to a uniform, but it has no insignia on it. These men are not in uniform. Their rank is given because they served. My father can still go by Master Sergeant if he chooses, even though he's been retired for 20 years. They can use that rank for life because they earned that right. The fact is, these guys served in theater and saw the results of the administration's mismanagement of the war. That is all that Pederson is showing by giving their rank. At least the tempest-in-a-teapot crusade against the 9-11 memorial was actually based some facts. One has to wonder if the writer's objection has more to do with the views expressed in the ad.|W|P|116074439495021832|W|P|Silly Allegations About Pederson|W|P|prezelski@aol.com
The website Majority Watch has posted a poll showing Ellen Simon ahead of Rick Renzi 50-46. They also posted some crosstabs. Unfortunately, the tabs's geographic breakdown seems a bit ham handed, with Graham and Greenlee Counties lumped in with Flagstaff and the Navajo nation. This makes it harder to see how she's doing in the more reliably Democratic areas compared to the Republican areas.
But, I'll take it anyway. Who the heck saw this coming? Not my part of the state, so I have an excuse.|W|P|116074185172577820|W|P|Simon Ahead?|W|P|prezelski@aol.comGiven the regrettable and disturbing nature of the e-mail Russell Pearce circulated earlier this week, I cannot in good conscience lend my endorsement to his candidacy for state Representative. While Russell has issued an apology for his e-mail, I nonetheless will not be associated with any communication that contains anti-Semitic remarksNext time Russell, make sure you only quote anti-Semetic remarks from Henry Ford. That seems to be okay with Rep. Hayworth.|W|P|116067195286275615|W|P|Now He Tells Us|W|P|prezelski@aol.com
Our man Russell Pearce is making the unlikely claim that he didn't know that an article entitled "Who Rules America? The Alien Grip on Our News and Entertainment Media Must Be Broken" contained white supremacist statements.
Hogwash.
(I think I've read that word somewhere, who knows why it is in my head.)
The article in question was originally published in a publication of the National Alliance. That may have been clue number one that the article may have been racist. This is like one claiming that one didn't know that an article in Hustler was sexually oriented.
He claims that he did not read the whole article. Yeah, I usually forward articles from people that I didn't read. Well, I went ahead and read the original article. If Pearce had read only to the seventh paragraph, he would have found this:
For example, a racially mixed couple will be respected, liked, and socially sought after by other characters, as will a "take charge" Black scholar or businessman, or a sensitive and talented homosexual, or a poor but honest and hardworking illegal alien from Mexico. On the other hand, a White racist—that is, any racially conscious White person who looks askance at miscegenation or at the rapidly darkening racial situation in America—is portrayed, at best, as a despicable bigot who is reviled by the other characters, or, at worst, as a dangerous psychopath who is fascinated by firearms and is a menace to all law-abiding citizens. The White racist "gun nut," in fact, has become a familiar stereotype on TV shows.Yeah, he had no idea that might contain "insensitive" statements. It gets worse from there for those of you willing to read the whole vile thing. Pearce claims that he didn't know the contents of the article and doesn't agree with them. I find this incredibly unlikely. The local media should pursue this. This isn't a matter of him just using the word "wetback," this is a matter of asking questions about who he is associating with and what motivates him politically. Unfortunately, the media and political establishment is too quick to laugh this sort of thing off as "well, that's Russ." This guy has an awful lot of power, and was even talked about as a candidate for higher office. It's high time some one asks some tough questions. Of course, he could just be a moron that is sending articles to people without reading them. So, he's either a bigot or an idiot. Which is it, Russ?|W|P|116057733919482256|W|P|Pearce: I'm Not a Racist, I Just Can't Read|W|P|prezelski@aol.com
A recent e-mail "blast" from Randy Graf's campaign appealed for supporters to re-sign up after purported computer problems rendered a large portion of their volunteer database inaccessible.
This would be an irritating problem that would be in house, except for one thing: Graf's problems were featured in the national tip-sheet Hotline:
Computer Crash and Burn: In AZ 08, ex-State Rep. Randy Graf's (R) camp asked his volunteers "to re-register with the" camp, as " computer problems" made "a large portion" of their volunteer database "inaccessible." In a newsletter, Graf's camp said it is "extremely apologetic for the inconvenience" and said "the problem has been corrected."For all of the bluster that he doesn't need national support, he does need some. Hotline is read by national donors and the people that run PACs. This sort of publicity can't help.|W|P|116057582251664227|W|P|Oops!|W|P|prezelski@aol.com
A mailer from Republican House candidate Bill Phillips hit the mailboxes of Republicans and NOPs this week:
Republicans comprise a substantial minority in our District, yet we have not had representation for some time. I believe there is a need for a different voice - a representative who appreciates limited government, lower taxes and fiscal responsibility. In the past four years our two incumbents personally introduced 68 bills of which only 5 became law. We deserve better. Each District has two members in the State House of Representatives. I am the lone Republican in this race. We have a golden opportunity to elect a represenatative who will be more effective on issues important to our District. Since there are two open seats, you are allowed to vote for up to any two candidates. There is no requirement, however, to exercise both votes. Consider exercising only one of your two available votes - just for BILL PHILLIPS. This is likened to casting two votes for one candidate. Using the second vote would necessitate your voting for the other party. I ask for the privilege of being your State Representative.Interesting that Phillips attacks Dave Bradley and Ted Downing for not passing gobs of bills. Given most of what has been passing the legislature, I would consider this a good thing.
You'd expect him to then take the tack of, "Elect me, a Republican, so I can work with the Republican leadership." Instead, he takes the rather technical track of explaining the strategy of "single shoting." He even includes a helpful diagram to show how this is done.
"Single shoting" is when a candidate for one reason or another asks that his or her supporters only use one of their two votes, so that the second vote will not help out one of the other candidates running.
This can work very well in a partisan race where one candidate of the majority party is noticeably weaker than the other. This is a large part of how Jennifer Burns got elected in an otherwise decent Democratic year and also how Ted Poelstra was elected. Poelstra also had the advantage of a strong Green party candidate, Katie Bolger, who drew considerable numbers of Democratic votes.
In this race, I wonder if this strategy will work. The last registration counts show a Democratic advantage of 43%-29%. With this sort of advantage, one of the two Democratic nominees would have to be considerably weaker than the other for Phillips to take advantage. If the primary results are to be believed, the two Democrats will probably capture both votes of most Democrats.
The thing that is funny to me about this appeal is that it is pretty partisan. Why would you make a partisan appeal like this to independent voters? Independent voters are precisely the sort that don't like partisan messages. In addition, independents in Tucson tend to be left of center or even futher left than the Democratic party. It is difficult to believe that an appeal that says "let's mess with the Democrats by single shoting!" would find much support.|W|P|116053103155471180|W|P|Don't Waste Your Vote!|W|P|prezelski@aol.com